Seismology to improve in the next few years, SCEC geologist says

Geologist Thomas H. Jordan, scientific director at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) said in a lecture at the annual American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) meeting on Saturday that seismology will improve considerably over the next years and will be able to detect earthquakes some minutes before they happen.

Jordan exhibited some computer-simulations of earthquakes made by his staff, based on geological mappings of the San Andreas fault. According to the scientist, many events prior to the quake, such as overloads, may be detected; besides, Jordan remembered that a few minutes could be very helpful as it would be enough to evacuate buildings and crowded areas.

Other area at seismology which is also likely to improve in the next years is the fore-shocks detection; these small-scale shocks happen before stronger quakes and occured last year at Aquila, Italy.